Wednesday, May 17, 2006

WASHINGTON : US wholesale prices jumped 0.9 percent in April as gasoline costs surged, but basic prices excluding food and energy were more restrained, the Labor Department said. The rise in the headline producer price index (PPI) was above the expected increase of 0.8 percent and the steepest since September last year. But the 0.1-percent rise in the core rate, seen by many economists as a better indicator of inflationary pressures, was below the market forecast of a 0.2 percent increase. "There remains no indication of a pass-through of commodity prices to even the finished wholesale price level," Nomura US chief economist David Resler said. "The result, going into tomorrow's CPI (consumer price index), is consistent with our outlook for the Fed to hold steady at the late June meeting," he added. The Federal Reserve has expressed concern at the inflationary impact of record-high oil prices, but has dropped hints that it may also be preparing to pause on its long-running campaign of rate hikes. The release Wednesday of the CPI figure for April should give the central bank a better indication of price pressures. Economists expect headline consumer prices to have gone up 0.5 percent, and by 0.2 percent at the core level once food and energy are stripped out. The PPI is up 4.0 percent in the past year, compared with a 3.5 percent year-over-year gain in March. Core prices are up 1.5 percent in the past year, the slowest gain since December. Energy prices increased 4.0 percent in April, led by a 12.3-percent surge in gasoline prices. But price pressures were less pronounced in other parts of the industrial pipeline. Food prices rose 0.1 percent, capital goods prices were up 0.2 percent and prices of consumer goods excluding food and energy increased 0.1 percent.

FRANKFURT : The European Central Bank is unperturbed by the dollar's current weakness and may still press ahead with an increase in its key interest rates next month, Austrian central bank chief Klaus Liebscher said in a newspaper interview. So far, ECB policy-makers have resisted commenting publicly on exchange rates even though, with the euro at close to 1.29 dollars, the single currency's strength and pace of increase are moving close to those seen in November 2004. At that time ECB chief Jean-Claude Trichet described the euro's rise as "brutal". But Liebscher suggested in an interview with the Financial Times that the bank was less worried about the strength of the euro this time round. "I have registered really no complaints up to now from the side of industry," the Austrian central bank chief said. Indeed, while the exchange rate was a "very important factor in our considerations ... it is not the only one", Liebscher said. "We will consider all the data that are there." High inflation was the primary source of concern, the central banker continued. "The risks to price stability, on top of the very positive developments in growth, are high. Inflation is already going to be above 2.0 percent according to our current forecasts. So this aspect is very important for our monetary policy decisions," Liebscher said. The ECB has already raised its benchmark "refi" refinancing rate by 0.5 percentage points to 2.75 percent since December 2005 and is widely expected to tighten monetary conditions again next month. Liebscher even appeared to leave open the possibility of a half-point rise in rates when the ECB's policy-setting governing council meets in Madrid on June 8. "There is no dispute that a further tightening of monetary policy is needed," he said. "When, and to what extent, we will certainly have to discuss."

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